COVID -19 in Ecuador: turnaround favorable to white-collar organized crime
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Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has been the detonating factor, evidencing the profound civilizational crisis that has been brewing for a decade. The pandemic shook and continues to shake the planet due to its diverse variants and the exponential speed of contagion that leads to high mortality rates in the population.
This article reflects on the complexity of the pandemic as a triggering factor for white-collar corruption. To this end, the analytical methodological approach chosen articulates the construction of a mixed view, bringing together the various tools worked by the futurist Sohail Inayatullah, such as: Triangle of Futures and the Construction of Dual Variable Scenarios. All this within the framework of an onto-epistemic discussion in complexity of the pandemic/corruption relational problem in Ecuador - emblematic cases - alluding to discontinuous, heterogeneous, disruptive and random environments, which derives in a propitious environment for corruption to be part of organized crime at the State level.
The results of the analytical process showed that the incidence of weak governance in the face of the pandemic, in an environment of high uncertainty, requires analytical construction that transcends the conjunctural view of the problem and incorporates long-term approaches, and in this particular case, hermeneutic foresight. Preliminary conclusions suggest the need to rethink and resize the value of subjectivity, experiential and extra-academic knowledge for the consensual design of possible futures, ensuring optimal political leadership and public management.
Key words: Future studies, complex thinking, security, learning communities, Intelligence.
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